My Oscar Predictions - Too Hot for The Cento!

Evening, all.

As you may know, the 83rd Annual Academy Awards Ceremony is this Sunday night. I've had many people ask me my predictions, and I've held back to give first dibs to The Cento. A couple weeks ago, a reporter from that distinguished publication approached me for an interview. Imagine my shock to see the interview excised from the latest issue (yet with space enough for professors' liquor cabinets). The reporter, Caroline Curry, has graciously allowed me to post the text of that interview on this blog; many thanks, Caroline!

What follows is Caroline's text of the interview. Thanks, and I'll see you at the movies (or the Oscars).

In light of the upcoming Oscar Awards on the 27th, I sat down with senior Marc Bentley, known around campus for his knowledge of film both past and present. Bentley had some interesting things to say about the best films from this past year, and hopes that credit will be given where credit is due.

First off, what was your favorite film of this year?

I loved Winter's Bone with John Hawkes and Jennifer Lawrence. The story was excellent and Lawrence's portrayal was astounding; I wish that she would win Best Actress, but I don't think she will.

Who do you think will win Best Supporting Actress?

This is one of those categories that is still up in the air right now. For one thing, as great as Hailee Steinfeld is in True Grit she does not belong in this category because her role is very much a leading role. They usually put child actors in the best supporting category, which is totally unfair because she is everywhere in this movie. It is much more her film than it is Rooster Cogburn's. That said, I think the award will go to Melissa Leo for The Fighter. I like The Fighter; I think it is the best-acted film of the year, but Melissa Leo...that role is fierce, and she does a great job. She has done character roles for many years and is a well-liked actress; The Academy really likes the film, and they really like Melissa Leo.

Do you think Christian Bale will win Best Supporting Actor for his role in The Fighter?

For supporting actor, it almost has to be Christian Bale. It is his first nomination ever, and he’s been acting for years. He turns himself inside for his role; he is a very intense actor. As much as I love John Hawkes, I do think that Bale should and will win for this category. I’ve been hearing lots of good things about Geoffrey Rush, but he already has an Oscar for his role in Shine in 1996, so I don’t think they’ll give him another so soon, especially when they’ve got someone like Christian Bale who has won the SAG award, the Golden Globe, the Critic’s Choice, so he’s doing quite well. But it is sad that Mark Wahlberg isn’t nominated; his role is very quiet, not a flashy role, but he did a very good job with it.

Jennifer Lawrence was nominated for Best Actress, but you don't think she'll win?

I would love to see her win for Winter’s Bone; her character has to deal with so much, and you know from the first frame that the outcome for her is not going to be positive. But in spite of that I think it is going to go to Natalie Portman for Black Swan. Right now she’s hot, and though I have heard Annette Benning did a wonderful job in The Kids Are All Right, it is a fact that most of the Oscar voters are old white men who generally vote for women who are younger. In the past ten to fifteen years they may have given the award to two women over the age of forty; Sandra Bullock, who is still very attractive, and Helen Mirren for The Queen. But Natalie Portman has charm; people like her right now, and this is her time. And of course she does a fantastic job in Black Swan; very intense. Right now I would say it is between Portman and Annette Benning, but it will probably go to Natalie Portman.

What about Best Actor?

Jeff Bridges did great in True Grit, but he won last year for Crazy Heart, so I don't think they'll give it to him this year. Eisenberg; it's his first nomination, he's a young actor with a good career ahead of him; Franco the same way...and he's one of the hosts of the awards this year. This year is definitely Colin Firth's for The King's Speech.

Speaking of Jesse Eisenberg, what did you think of The Social Network?


Well, I watched it as a midnight movie so my cognitive functions may have not been at their best. It is a very well-written film, but it is very cold; it doesn’t leave you warm and fuzzy like The King’s Speech, but it is a very interesting film that I don’t really know what to think of. One interesting thing about it is that The Social Network won a vast majority of the critics awards but the guild awards are going to The King's Speech; critically, director David Fincher has a better film, but people did not respond to it as well.

That brings us to the nominations for Best Director. Thoughts?

This is a tough one...a really tough one. It's not going to be the Coen brothers; they just won for No Country For Old Men. It's really going to be between Tom Hooper for The King's Speech and David Fincher for The Social Network. The thing about Tom Hooper, he's known mostly for his TV work on HBO, and I'm thinking that this is his first big-screen film. In contrast, David Fincher has been directing films for seventeen years now or so, and he's already created quite the canon: SE7EN, Fight Club...

So you think it's going to go to The King's Speech?

I really don't know...because they gave the Director's Guild award, which is normally a very good indicator, to Tom Hooper. Which is surprising...again, David Fincher is considered to be the better director, has a better film...It could be a split year. About 90% of the time Best Picture and Best Director go together. I'm not sure there's going to be a split this year because The King's Speech is so strong right now. I would say that Tom Hooper has the momentum, but look out for David Fincher.

What about Best Original Screenplay?

The King's Speech. David Seidler...I think it is one of his first screenplays, and he has been active in Oscar circles, talking to people about how he first approached the Queen Mother about doing a film back in 1988, but she asked that they wait until after her death because the memories were still too painful even after all those years. I would say if it's not Seidler it will be Christopher Nolan for Inception. Best Adapted Screenplay will go to Aaron Sorkin for The Social Network.

Was there anything better than Toy Story 3 when it came to Animated Films?

How to Train Your Dragon was well-recieved, but Toy Story 3 will almost certainly get it. They loved it enough to give it a Best Picture nomination, which is a good sign. It didn't get as many nominations as it probably should have, but that shouldn't hurt its chances.

Best Picture

I would love to see Winter's Bone win, but it's not going to.

Why not?

Generally to win best picture you have to win best director. The last film to win best picture without being nominated for Best Director at all was Driving Miss Daisy back in 1989, and before that it was Grand Hotel in 1932. If you want to win Best Picture, you'd better have a lot of nominations and one of them better be Best Director.

So you think it's between Black Swan and The King's Speech?

I think it's between The Social Network and The King's Speech, even though from what I've heard is that Network is the better-made film, but that Speech makes people feel good; people need hope right now.

What would you say to people who have their own predictions and are going to watch the show?

My advice for anyone who watches the ceremony and wants to decide early on how things are going; if Geoffrey Rush wins best supporting actor for The King's Speech, then all bets are off.